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Buongiorno BLog’s People!
Thomas M. Hoenig, presidente della Fed di Kansas City, ha rilasciato il suo outlook per il 2010.
Ecco le sue parole.
“As we look forward in 2010, most economists expect GDP growth will increase at between 2.5 to 3 percent, with only modest improvement in labor markets and financial conditions. I am more optimistic. I expect that GDP growth, at least through 2010, will exceed 3 percent.
In the case of fiscal policy, the ballooning federal deficit must be controlled and reduced. If not, the federal debt will soon exceed national income. As the private sector recovers, increasing demand to finance both public and private debt will likely place upward pressure on interest rates. Eventually, there will be pressure put on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates artificially low as a means of providing the financing. The dire consequences of such action are well documented in history: In its worst cases, it is a recipe for hyperinflation.
Addressing the deficit will be made all the more complicated by the fact that many of the stimulus programs are scheduled to wind down in 2011 at the very time the Bush administration tax cuts are also scheduled to expire. It will be an extremely abrupt shift in fiscal policy from stimulus to restraint that will cause the economy to weaken.
In the case of monetary policy, the challenges are no less daunting. The Federal Reserve must curtail its emergency credit and financial market support programs, raise the federal funds rate target from zero back to a more normal level, probably between 3.5 and 4.5 percent, and restore its balance sheet to pre-crisis size and configuration“.
Ovvio che un livello “zero” dei tassi d’interesse è “anomalo”, quindi niente di strano se si dovesse tornare alla “normalità” (3,5-4,5%). Il problema è come potrebbe incastrarsi un aumento dei tassi d’interesse con una restrizione della politica fiscale. Siamo davanti ad un’economia talmente florida da poter fare a meno degli stimoli statali?
L’articolo è stato trattato anche nel Blog MarkeTime.
Con affetto, il vostro adorabile Promotore di Quartiere.
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gennaio 12th, 2010 at 16:55
con tre quattro giorni ritardo se ne sono accorti…
After noting that Itraxx’s Western European Sovereign index now trades at wider spreads than both its Main and Senior Financials gauge, RBS says mitigating sovereign risks may be the key to keeping the markets in check in 2010. Firm believes larger economies can navigate the turmoil, but warns that, “if yields start to rise, they could go a very, very long way.”